Interactive Bracket Prediction Report Full Data Package

2026 NCAA March Madness Tournament

Comprehensive Seed Document — Multi-Agent Prediction Engine Data Package

Last Updated: March 16, 2026

1. Tournament Overview

No. 1 Overall Seed: Duke Blue Devils (32-2)

Host City (Final Four): Indianapolis, IN — Lucas Oil Stadium

No. 1 Seeds by Region

Region	No. 1 Seed	Record	Region Site
East	Duke	32-2	Washington, DC
West	Arizona	32-2	San Jose, CA
Midwest	Michigan	31-3	Chicago, IL
South	Florida	26-7	Houston, TX

Tournament Schedule

Round	Dates
First Four	March 17-18 (Dayton, OH)
First Round (Round of 64)	March 19-20
Second Round (Round of 32)	March 21-22
Sweet 16	March 26-27
Elite Eight	March 28-29
Final Four	Saturday, April 4
National Championship	Monday, April 6

Field Composition

31 automatic bids (conference tournament champions)
37 at-large bids
Last Four In: NC State, Texas, SMU, Miami (OH)
First Four Out: Oklahoma, Auburn, SDSU, Indiana

2. Complete Bracket — All 68 Teams by Region

East Region (Washington, DC)

Seed	Team	Record	Conference	First-Round Opponent
1	Duke	32-2	ACC	(16) Siena
2	UConn	29-5	Big East	(15) Furman
3	Michigan State	25-7	Big Ten	(14) North Dakota State
4	Kansas	23-10	Big 12	(13) Cal Baptist
5	St. John's	28-6	Big East	(12) Northern Iowa
6	Louisville	23-10	ACC	(11) South Florida
7	UCLA	23-11	Big Ten	(10) UCF
8	Ohio State	21-12	Big Ten	(9) TCU
9	TCU	22-11	Big 12	(8) Ohio State
10	UCF	21-11	Big 12	(7) UCLA
11	South Florida	—	AAC	(6) Louisville
12	Northern Iowa	—	MVC	(5) St. John's
13	Cal Baptist	—	WAC	(4) Kansas
14	North Dakota State	—	Summit	(3) Michigan State
15	Furman	—	SoCon	(2) UConn
16	Siena	—	MAAC	(1) Duke

West Region (San Jose, CA)

Seed	Team	Record	Conference	First-Round Opponent
1	Arizona	32-2	Big 12	(16) LIU
2	Purdue	27-8	Big Ten	(15) Queens
3	Gonzaga	30-3	WCC	(14) Kennesaw State
4	Arkansas	26-8	SEC	(13) Hawaii
5	Wisconsin	24-10	Big Ten	(12) High Point
6	BYU	23-11	Big 12	(11) Texas/NC State
7	Miami (FL)	25-8	ACC	(10) Missouri
8	Villanova	24-8	Big East	(9) Utah State
9	Utah State	28-6	MWC	(8) Villanova
10	Missouri	20-12	SEC	(7) Miami (FL)
11	Texas/NC State	—	SEC/ACC	(6) BYU
12	High Point	—	Big South	(5) Wisconsin
13	Hawaii	—	Big West	(4) Arkansas
14	Kennesaw State	—	ASUN	(3) Gonzaga
15	Queens	—	ASUN	(2) Purdue
16	LIU	—	NEC	(1) Arizona

Midwest Region (Chicago, IL)

Seed	Team	Record	Conference	First-Round Opponent
1	Michigan	31-3	Big Ten	(16) UMBC/Howard
2	Iowa State	27-7	Big 12	(15) Tennessee State
3	Virginia	29-5	ACC	(14) Wright State
4	Alabama	23-9	SEC	(13) Hofstra
5	Texas Tech	22-10	Big 12	(12) Akron
6	Tennessee	22-11	SEC	(11) SMU/Miami (OH)
7	Kentucky	21-13	SEC	(10) Santa Clara
8	Georgia	22-10	SEC	(9) Saint Louis
9	Saint Louis	28-5	A-10	(8) Georgia
10	Santa Clara	26-8	WCC	(7) Kentucky
11	SMU/Miami (OH)	—	ACC/MAC	(6) Tennessee
12	Akron	—	MAC	(5) Texas Tech
13	Hofstra	—	CAA	(4) Alabama
14	Wright State	—	Horizon	(3) Virginia
15	Tennessee State	—	OVC	(2) Iowa State
16	UMBC/Howard	—	AE/MEAC	(1) Michigan

South Region (Houston, TX)

Seed	Team	Record	Conference	First-Round Opponent
1	Florida	26-7	SEC	(16) Prairie View/Lehigh
2	Houston	28-6	Big 12	(15) Idaho
3	Illinois	24-8	Big Ten	(14) Penn
4	Nebraska	26-6	Big Ten	(13) Troy
5	Vanderbilt	26-8	SEC	(12) McNeese
6	North Carolina	24-8	ACC	(11) VCU
7	Saint Mary's	27-5	WCC	(10) Texas A&M
8	Clemson	24-10	ACC	(9) Iowa
9	Iowa	21-12	Big Ten	(8) Clemson
10	Texas A&M	21-11	SEC	(7) Saint Mary's
11	VCU	—	A-10	(6) North Carolina
12	McNeese	—	Southland	(5) Vanderbilt
13	Troy	—	Sun Belt	(4) Nebraska
14	Penn	—	Ivy	(3) Illinois
15	Idaho	—	Big Sky	(2) Houston
16	Prairie View/Lehigh	—	SWAC/Patriot	(1) Florida

First Four Games (Dayton, OH)

Date	Matchup	Type
March 17	(16) UMBC vs. (16) Howard	16-seed play-in
March 17	(11) NC State vs. (11) Texas	11-seed play-in
March 18	(16) Lehigh vs. (16) Prairie View A&M	16-seed play-in
March 18	(11) SMU vs. (11) Miami (OH)	11-seed play-in

3. First-Round Matchups with Betting Lines

First Four (Tuesday, March 17)

Matchup	Spread	Moneyline	O/U
UMBC vs. Howard	UMBC -1.5	UMBC -120 / Howard EVEN	139.5
NC State vs. Texas	NC State -1.5	NC State -115 / Texas -105	158.5

First Four (Wednesday, March 18)

Matchup	Spread	Moneyline	O/U
Lehigh vs. Prairie View A&M	Lehigh -3.5	Lehigh -166 / PV +140	142.5
SMU vs. Miami (OH)	SMU -6.5	SMU -310 / Miami (OH) +250	164.5

Thursday, March 19 — First Round

Matchup	Spread	Moneyline	O/U
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) TCU	OSU -2.5	OSU -142 / TCU +120	146.5
(4) Nebraska vs. (13) Troy	NEB -12.5	NEB -1000 / Troy +650	137.5
(6) Louisville vs. (11) South Florida	LOU -5.5	LOU -225 / USF +185	165.5
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) High Point	WIS -9.5	WIS -470 / HP +360	164.5
(1) Duke vs. (16) Siena	DUKE -29.5	DUKE -20000 / Siena +3500	136.5
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) McNeese	VANDY -11.5	VANDY -625 / McNeese +455	150.5
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) N. Dakota St.	MSU -16.5	MSU -1800 / NDSU +1000	143.5
(4) Arkansas vs. (13) Hawaii	ARK -15.5	ARK -1350 / Hawaii +800	160.5
(6) North Carolina vs. (11) VCU	UNC -2.5	UNC -142 / VCU +120	154.5
(1) Michigan vs. UMBC/Howard	TBD	TBD	TBD
(6) BYU vs. NC State/Texas	TBD	TBD	TBD
(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Texas A&M	SM -3.5	SM -162 / A&M +136	147.5
(3) Illinois vs. (14) Penn	ILL -24.5	ILL -6500 / Penn +2000	150.5
(8) Georgia vs. (9) Saint Louis	UGA -2.5	UGA -162 / SLU +136	169.5
(3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Kennesaw State	ZAGA -20.5	ZAGA -3200 / KSU +1400	154.5
(2) Houston vs. (15) Idaho	HOU -23.5	HOU -8000 / Idaho +2200	136.5

Friday, March 20 — First Round

Matchup	Spread	Moneyline	O/U
(7) Kentucky vs. (10) Santa Clara	UK -3.5	UK -166 / SC +140	160.5
(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) Akron	TTU -7.5	TTU -325 / Akron +260	156.5
(1) Arizona vs. (16) LIU	ARIZ -31.5	ARIZ -100000 / LIU +5000	151.5
(3) Virginia vs. (14) Wright State	UVA -18.5	UVA -2400 / WS +1200	145.5
(2) Iowa State vs. (15) Tennessee State	ISU -25.5	ISU -8000 / TSU +2200	149.5
(4) Alabama vs. (13) Hofstra	BAMA -12.5	BAMA -950 / Hofstra +625	159.5
(8) Villanova vs. (9) Utah State	USU -2.5	USU -135 / Nova +114	147.5
(6) Tennessee vs. SMU/Miami (OH)	TBD	TBD	TBD
(8) Clemson vs. (9) Iowa	Iowa -2.5	Iowa -135 / Clem +114	129.5
(5) St. John's vs. (12) Northern Iowa	STJ -10.5	STJ -600 / UNI +440	131.5
(7) UCLA vs. (10) UCF	UCLA -5.5	UCLA -245 / UCF +200	152.5
(2) Purdue vs. (15) Queens	PUR -25.5	PUR -8000 / Queens +2200	163.5
(1) Florida vs. Lehigh/PV winner	TBD	TBD	TBD
(4) Kansas vs. (13) Cal Baptist	KU -14.5	KU -1200 / CBU +750	137.5
(2) UConn vs. (15) Furman	UCONN -20.5	UCONN -4500 / Furman +1700	137.5
(7) Miami vs. (10) Missouri	MIA -1.5	MIA -130 / Mizzou +110	147.5

4. KenPom Efficiency Rankings

Top 40 KenPom Rankings (as of March 16, 2026)

KenPom Rank	Team	AdjO Rank	AdjD Rank	Conference	Seed
1	Duke	4	2	ACC	1 (East)
2	Michigan	8	1	Big Ten	1 (Midwest)
3	Arizona	5	3	Big 12	1 (West)
4	Florida	9	6	SEC	1 (South)
5	Houston	14	5	Big 12	2 (South)
6	Iowa State	21	4	Big 12	2 (Midwest)
7	Illinois	1	28	Big Ten	3 (South)
8	Purdue	2	36	Big Ten	2 (West)
9	Michigan State	24	13	Big Ten	3 (East)
10	Gonzaga	29	9	WCC	3 (West)
11	Vanderbilt	7	29	SEC	5 (South)
12	UConn	30	11	Big East	2 (East)
13	Virginia	27	16	ACC	3 (Midwest)
14	Nebraska	55	7	Big Ten	4 (South)
15	Tennessee	37	15	SEC	6 (Midwest)
16	St. John's	44	12	Big East	5 (East)
17	Alabama	3	67	SEC	4 (Midwest)
18	Arkansas	6	52	SEC	4 (West)
19	Louisville	20	25	ACC	6 (East)
20	Texas Tech	12	33	Big 12	5 (Midwest)
~21	Kansas	—	—	Big 12	4 (East)
~22	Wisconsin	—	—	Big Ten	5 (West)
~23	BYU	—	—	Big 12	6 (West)
~24	Saint Mary's	—	18	WCC	7 (South)
~25	North Carolina	—	—	ACC	6 (South)
~26	UCLA	—	—	Big Ten	7 (East)
~27	Kentucky	—	—	SEC	7 (Midwest)
~28	Miami (FL)	—	—	ACC	7 (West)
~29	Clemson	—	—	ACC	8 (South)
~30	Ohio State	—	—	Big Ten	8 (East)
~31	Georgia	—	—	SEC	8 (Midwest)
~32	Utah State	—	—	MWC	9 (West)
~33	Villanova	—	—	Big East	8 (West)
~34	Iowa	—	—	Big Ten	9 (South)
~35	Saint Louis	—	—	A-10	9 (Midwest)
~36	TCU	—	—	Big 12	9 (East)
~37	Santa Clara	—	—	WCC	10 (Midwest)
~38-40	UCF	—	—	Big 12	10 (East)
~41-45	Texas A&M	—	—	SEC	10 (South)
~46-47	VCU	—	—	A-10	11 (South)
~48-50	NC State	—	—	ACC	11 (West)
~51	Missouri	—	—	SEC	10 (West)

Note: Ranks 21+ are approximate based on aggregate reporting. Full AdjO/AdjD breakdowns for these teams require a KenPom.com subscription.

KenPom Key Metrics Explained

AdjO (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality
AdjD (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality
AdjEM (Adjusted Efficiency Margin): AdjO minus AdjD; the primary ranking metric
AdjT (Adjusted Tempo): Possessions per 40 minutes, adjusted for opponent tempo

Teams with Elite Two-Way Balance (Top 20 AdjO AND Top 35 AdjD)

Duke — AdjO #4, AdjD #2
Arizona — AdjO #5, AdjD #3
Michigan — AdjO #8, AdjD #1
Florida — AdjO #9, AdjD #6
Houston — AdjO #14, AdjD #5
Iowa State — AdjO #21, AdjD #4 (borderline offense)

Offensive Powerhouses (Top 10 AdjO)

Illinois (AdjO #1) — Nation's best offense
Purdue (AdjO #2)
Alabama (AdjO #3)
Duke (AdjO #4)
Arizona (AdjO #5)
Arkansas (AdjO #6)
Vanderbilt (AdjO #7)
Michigan (AdjO #8)
Florida (AdjO #9)

Defensive Fortresses (Top 10 AdjD)

Michigan (AdjD #1) — Nation's best defense
Duke (AdjD #2)
Arizona (AdjD #3)
Iowa State (AdjD #4)
Houston (AdjD #5)
Florida (AdjD #6)
Nebraska (AdjD #7)
(unranked data)
Gonzaga (AdjD #9)
(unranked data)
UConn (AdjD #11)
St. John's (AdjD #12)

5. Championship & Tournament Advancement Odds

Championship Odds (as of March 16, 2026)

Team	Seed	Championship	Final Four	Elite Eight
Duke	1 (East)	+300	+140	-135
Michigan	1 (Midwest)	+360	+155	-130
Arizona	1 (West)	+390	+180	-120
Florida	1 (South)	+750	+350	+165
Houston	2 (South)	+1000	+475	+250
Iowa State	2 (Midwest)	+1500	+700	+245
Illinois	3 (South)	+1900	+800	+310
UConn	2 (East)	+2500	+1300	+600
Purdue	2 (West)	+2500	+900	+360
Michigan State	3 (East)	+4000	+1500	+700
Gonzaga	3 (West)	+4000	+1800	+500
St. John's	5 (East)	+6000	+2000	+900
Arkansas	4 (West)	+6000	+3000	+1100
Kansas	4 (East)	+6000	+3000	+1500
Virginia	3 (Midwest)	+7500	+3000	+1100
Vanderbilt	5 (South)	+7500	+3000	+1100
Wisconsin	5 (West)	+8000	+3500	+1500
Nebraska	4 (South)	+10000	+4000	+1100
Louisville	6 (East)	+11000	+2800	+1300
Tennessee	6 (Midwest)	+12000	+4000	+1300
Texas Tech	5 (Midwest)	+13000	+3500	+1700
UCLA	7 (East)	+15000	+5500	+2200
Alabama	4 (Midwest)	+18000	+6000	+2200
Kentucky	7 (Midwest)	+20000	+9000	+4500
Ohio State	8 (East)	+25000	+6000	+2500
BYU	6 (West)	+25000	+13000	+6000
Clemson	8 (South)	+25000	+10000	+6500
North Carolina	6 (South)	+25000	+20000	+6000
Villanova	8 (West)	+25000	+18000	+7500
Saint Mary's	7 (South)	+30000	+7500	+3500
Iowa	9 (South)	+30000	+14000	+4500
NC State	11 (West)	+30000	+25000	+12000
Texas A&M	10 (South)	+35000	+40000	+14000
Miami	7 (West)	+40000	+10000	+5000
Utah State	9 (West)	+40000	+20000	+9000
Saint Louis	9 (Midwest)	+40000	+30000	+17000
TCU	9 (East)	+40000	+35000	+13000
UCF	10 (East)	+40000	+40000	+45000
Georgia	8 (Midwest)	+50000	+20000	+6500
Santa Clara	10 (Midwest)	+50000	+20000	+7500
Missouri	10 (West)	+50000	+25000	+13000
Texas	11 (West)	+50000	+20000	+13000
VCU	11 (South)	+50000	+30000	+15000
SMU	11 (Midwest)	+50000	+25000	+20000
South Florida	11 (East)	+100000	+40000	+19000
McNeese	12 (South)	+100000	+35000	+40000
Akron	12 (Midwest)	+100000	+40000	+50000
Miami (OH)	11 (Midwest)	+150000	+40000	+70000
Northern Iowa	12 (East)	+200000	+35000	+25000
High Point	12 (West)	+200000	+40000	+40000
Penn	14 (South)	+150000	+40000	+100000
All 13-16 seeds	13-16	+200000	+40000+	+40000+

6. Team Statistical Profiles (Seeds 1-5)

No. 1 Seeds

Duke Blue Devils (1-East) | 32-2 | ACC

KenPom: #1 overall (AdjO #4, AdjD #2)
Championship Odds: +300 (favorite)
Key Player: Cameron Boozer — 22.7 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 41% 3PT
Strengths: Elite two-way balance; championship-caliber on both ends
Weaknesses: Injury concerns at PG and C (see injury report)
Conference Tournament: Won ACC Tournament (beat Virginia 74-70 in final)
Notable: No. 1 overall seed; led by potential #1 NBA pick Cameron Boozer
Coaching: Jon Scheyer, 4th year

Arizona Wildcats (1-West) | 32-2 | Big 12

KenPom: #3 overall (AdjO #5, AdjD #3)
Championship Odds: +390
Key Players: Seven players averaging 8.7+ PPG; extremely balanced roster
Strengths: Best roster depth in the country; elite defense and offense
Weaknesses: No dominant superstar scorer; reliant on balance
Conference Tournament: Won Big 12 Tournament (beat Houston in final)
Coaching: Tommy Lloyd, 5th year

Michigan Wolverines (1-Midwest) | 31-3 | Big Ten

KenPom: #2 overall (AdjO #8, AdjD #1)
Championship Odds: +360
Key Player: Lendeborg — 14.3 PPG (projected lottery pick)
Strengths: Nation's #1 defense; tallest lineup in America
Weaknesses: Lost Big Ten Tournament final to Purdue (80-72)
Conference Tournament: Runner-up (lost to Purdue)
Coaching: Dusty May, 2nd year

Florida Gators (1-South) | 26-7 | SEC

KenPom: #4 overall (AdjO #9, AdjD #6)
Championship Odds: +750
Key Players: Rebuilding after title-winning roster departed
Strengths: 11-game winning streak entering tournament; defending national champions
Weaknesses: Seven losses suggest vulnerability; least dominant 1-seed
Conference Tournament: Did not win SEC Tournament
Coaching: Todd Golden, 4th year

No. 2 Seeds

UConn Huskies (2-East) | 29-5 | Big East

KenPom: #12 overall (AdjO #30, AdjD #11)
Championship Odds: +2500
Strengths: Chasing 3rd national title in 4 years; 18-game win streak earlier in season
Weaknesses: AdjO #30 suggests offense can be inconsistent
Notable: Placed in toughest region (East) with Duke, Michigan State, Kansas

Purdue Boilermakers (2-West) | 27-8 | Big Ten

KenPom: #8 overall (AdjO #2, AdjD #36)
Championship Odds: +2500
Key Player: Braden Smith — 14.9 PPG (All-American guard)
Strengths: Top-3 offense nationally; Big Ten Tournament champions (beat Michigan)
Weaknesses: Defense ranks only 36th; susceptible to elite offenses
Conference Tournament: Won Big Ten Tournament

Iowa State Cyclones (2-Midwest) | 27-7 | Big 12

KenPom: #6 overall (AdjO #21, AdjD #4)
Championship Odds: +1500
Strengths: Elite defense (#4 nationally); "beautiful mess" style works in March
Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense (AdjO #21); can go cold
Notable: Co-favorite with Duke per some oddsmakers at +1500

Houston Cougars (2-South) | 28-6 | Big 12

KenPom: #5 overall (AdjO #14, AdjD #5)
Championship Odds: +1000
Key Player: Kingston Flemings — 16.5 PPG (freshman PG, lottery pick)
Strengths: Top-5 defense; elite freshman point guard
Weaknesses: Lost Big 12 Tournament final to Arizona

No. 3 Seeds

Michigan State Spartans (3-East) | 25-7 | Big Ten

KenPom: #9 overall (AdjO #24, AdjD #13)
Championship Odds: +4000
Strengths: Tournament-tested; strong defense; Izzo in March
Weaknesses: No projected lottery picks; placed in brutal East region

Gonzaga Bulldogs (3-West) | 30-3 | WCC

KenPom: #10 overall (AdjO #29, AdjD #9)
Championship Odds: +4000
Strengths: Elite defense (#9) despite key injury; 30 wins
Weaknesses: Missing Braden Huff (6'10 F) since January knee injury

Virginia Cavaliers (3-Midwest) | 29-5 | ACC

KenPom: #13 overall (AdjO #27, AdjD #16)
Championship Odds: +7500
Key Stat: 46.8% from 3-point range (elite shooting)
Strengths: Coach Odom's first-year transformation; lethal 3-point shooting
Weaknesses: Lost ACC Tournament final to Duke

Illinois Fighting Illini (3-South) | 24-8 | Big Ten

KenPom: #7 overall (AdjO #1, AdjD #28)
Championship Odds: +1900
Key Player: Keaton Wagler — 17.9 PPG (breakout star)
Strengths: Nation's #1 offense; can outscore anyone
Weaknesses: Defense ranked only 28th creates vulnerability
Notable: Third-lowest championship odds among 3-seeds (better than some 2-seeds)

No. 4 Seeds

Kansas Jayhawks (4-East) | 23-10 | Big 12

KenPom: ~#21
Championship Odds: +6000
Key Player: Darryn Peterson — 19.9 PPG (projected #1 NBA pick despite injury disruptions)
Weaknesses: 10 losses; Peterson battled injuries all season
Notable: Placed in murderous East region with Duke, UConn, Michigan State

Arkansas Razorbacks (4-West) | 26-8 | SEC

KenPom: #18 overall (AdjO #6, AdjD #52)
Championship Odds: +6000
Key Player: Darius Acuff Jr. — 22.2 PPG (elite freshman PG)
Strengths: Top-6 offense; Calipari coaching; SEC Tournament champions
Weaknesses: AdjD #52 is a significant defensive liability

Alabama Crimson Tide (4-Midwest) | 23-9 | SEC

KenPom: #17 overall (AdjO #3, AdjD #67)
Championship Odds: +18000
Strengths: Leads nation in scoring at 91.7 PPG; top-3 offense
Weaknesses: AdjD #67 is worst defensive rating of any top-4 seed; 9 losses

Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-South) | 26-6 | Big Ten

KenPom: #14 overall (AdjO #55, AdjD #7)
Championship Odds: +10000
Key Player: Pryce Sandfort — 17.9 PPG
Strengths: Best Big Ten defense; elite turnover forcing; only 6 losses
Weaknesses: AdjO #55 suggests limited scoring firepower
Notable: First NCAA tournament appearance in recent memory; 0 all-time NCAA tournament wins to build on

No. 5 Seeds

St. John's Red Storm (5-East) | 28-6 | Big East

KenPom: #16 overall (AdjO #44, AdjD #12)
Championship Odds: +6000
Strengths: Back-to-back Big East regular season titles under Rick Pitino; defense is elite
Weaknesses: Offense ranks only 44th

Wisconsin Badgers (5-West) | 24-10 | Big Ten

KenPom: ~#22
Championship Odds: +8000
Strengths: Signature wins over Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State
Weaknesses: 10 losses; inconsistent

Vanderbilt Commodores (5-South) | 26-8 | SEC

KenPom: #11 overall (AdjO #7, AdjD #29)
Championship Odds: +7500
Strengths: Top-7 offense; KenPom #11 is well above 5-seed typical placement
Notable: Called "best dark horse bet" by analysts; value pick

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-Midwest) | 22-10 | Big 12

KenPom: #20 overall (AdjO #12, AdjD #33)
Championship Odds: +13000
Key Player: Christian Anderson — 19.2 PPG
Weaknesses: Lost JT Toppin to season-ending ACL injury; 10 losses

7. Conference Strength Analysis

2026 NCAA Tournament Bids by Conference

Conference	Total Bids	Auto	At-Large	Teams
SEC	10	1	9	Florida (1), Houston*, Alabama (4), Arkansas (4), Vanderbilt (5), Tennessee (6), Kentucky (7), Georgia (8), Texas A&M (10), Missouri (10)
Big Ten	9	1	8	Michigan (1), Purdue (2), Michigan State (3), Illinois (3), Nebraska (4), Wisconsin (5), UCLA (7), Ohio State (8), Iowa (9)
Big 12	8	1	7	Arizona (1), Houston (2)*, Iowa State (2), Kansas (4), Texas Tech (5), BYU (6), UCF (10), TCU (9)
ACC	7	1	6	Duke (1), Virginia (3), Louisville (6), North Carolina (6), Miami (7), Clemson (8), NC State (11)
Big East	3	0	3	UConn (2), St. John's (5), Villanova (8)
WCC	3	1	2	Gonzaga (3), Saint Mary's (7), Santa Clara (10)
A-10	2	1	1	Saint Louis (9), VCU (11)
AAC	1	0	1	South Florida (11)
MWC	1	0	1	Utah State (9)
MAC	2	1	1	Akron (12), Miami OH (11)
CAA	1	1	0	Hofstra (13)
MVC	1	1	0	Northern Iowa (12)
Southland	1	1	0	McNeese (12)
Big South	1	1	0	High Point (12)
Sun Belt	1	1	0	Troy (13)
WAC	1	1	0	Cal Baptist (13)
Big West	1	1	0	Hawaii (13)
Ivy	1	1	0	Penn (14)
ASUN	2	2	0	Kennesaw State (14), Queens (15)
Horizon	1	1	0	Wright State (14)
Summit	1	1	0	North Dakota State (14)
SoCon	1	1	0	Furman (15)
OVC	1	1	0	Tennessee State (15)
Big Sky	1	1	0	Idaho (15)
MAAC	1	1	0	Siena (16)
AE	1	1	0	UMBC (16)
MEAC	1	1	0	Howard (16)
SWAC	1	1	0	Prairie View A&M (16)
NEC	1	1	0	LIU (16)
Patriot	1	1	0	Lehigh (16)
SMU Conference	1	0	1	SMU (11)

Note: Houston is listed in Big 12 for conference purposes despite SEC membership history. Conference assignments may vary by source.

Conference Tournament Champions (Major Conferences)

Conference	Champion	Final Score
ACC	Duke	Duke 74, Virginia 70
Big Ten	Purdue	Purdue 80, Michigan 72
SEC	Arkansas	Arkansas 86, Vanderbilt 75
Big 12	Arizona	Arizona def. Houston
Big East	St. John's	—

Conference Strength Indicators

SEC: Deepest conference with 10 bids; Arkansas won conference tournament as 3-seed
Big Ten: 9 bids with dominant top-end (Michigan, Purdue); sent Purdue as conf. tourney champ
Big 12: 8 bids; Arizona and Houston are national title contenders
ACC: 7 bids but concentrated at the top (Duke) with significant drop-off
Big East: Only 3 bids but high quality (UConn seeking 3-peat)

8. Injury Report

Critical Injuries Affecting Tournament Outcomes

Team	Player	Injury	Status	Impact
Duke (1)	Caleb Foster (PG)	Foot	Walking boot; projected return late in tournament IF AT ALL	CRITICAL — Starting PG, orchestrates offense
Duke (1)	Patrick Ngongba (C)	Foot	Walking boot; missed ACC Tournament	HIGH — Starting center, interior presence
Michigan (1)	L.J. Cason (G)	Undisclosed	Questionable	MODERATE — Guard depth concern
Gonzaga (3)	Braden Huff (F)	Knee	OUT since January 15	HIGH — 6'10 junior forward, key interior player
Texas Tech (5)	JT Toppin (F)	ACL	OUT for season	CRITICAL — Star player, season-ending
North Carolina (6)	Caleb Wilson	Thumb	OUT for season	CRITICAL — Projected top-5 NBA pick; UNC is 0-2 without him
Kansas (4)	Darryn Peterson (G)	Various	Playing through injuries	MODERATE — Projected #1 NBA pick but has been limited throughout season

Injury Impact Assessment

Duke's PG crisis is the single biggest injury storyline. Caleb Foster's foot injury makes the No. 1 overall seed significantly more vulnerable. Without their orchestrating point guard, Duke's elite offense could falter against stiff East Region competition.
North Carolina at 6-seed is directly related to losing Caleb Wilson. The Tar Heels were a potential 1-2 seed before his injury and are now 0-2 without him.
Texas Tech vs. Akron is the first-round game most affected by injuries. With JT Toppin out, Akron (+260) is one of the most popular upset picks.
Gonzaga has adapted to life without Braden Huff (still 30-3, AdjD #9) but lack interior depth in a West region with physical Arizona and Arkansas teams.

9. Key Storylines & Factors

Top Storylines

Duke's Injury Cloud Over #1 Overall Seed
Duke enters as the No. 1 overall seed but without starting PG Caleb Foster and starting C Patrick Ngongba. Cameron Boozer (22.7 PPG, 10.2 RPG) must carry an even heavier load. The East Region is considered the toughest bracket with UConn, Michigan State, and Kansas all lurking.
UConn's Three-Peat Bid
The Huskies seek an unprecedented third consecutive national championship (won in 2024 and 2025). At 29-5 with an 18-game win streak earlier this season, they have tournament DNA but face the gauntlet East Region.
Florida Defending Title as Lowest-Rated 1-Seed
At 26-7, Florida is the "weakest" 1-seed by record but won it all last year. Their 11-game winning streak shows peak form, and defending champions historically perform well.
Michigan's #1 Defense vs. Arizona's Balance
Michigan owns the nation's best defense (AdjD #1) while Arizona may have the most balanced roster in the country (AdjO #5, AdjD #3). Both are 32-2 but only one can be the "best" 1-seed.
Freshman Phenoms
- Cameron Boozer (Duke): 22.7 PPG, 10.2 RPG
- AJ Dybantsa (BYU): Led nation in scoring as a freshman
- Kingston Flemings (Houston): 16.5 PPG, lottery-projected PG
- Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas): 22.2 PPG, elite PG
- Preston Edmead (Hofstra): Key to potential Cinderella run
Miami (OH) — The 31-1 Auto-Bid
The RedHawks finished the regular season 31-0 but lost in the first round of the MAC Tournament. They still received an 11-seed via the First Four, making them one of the most fascinating teams in the field.
Coach's Challenge — New Tournament Element
The 2026 NCAA Tournament will feature coach's challenges for the first time, adding a new strategic dimension to games.
Nebraska's Historic Moment
The Cornhuskers (26-6) have never won an NCAA Tournament game. At 4-seed, they have their best chance ever but face a South Region with Florida, Houston, and Illinois.

Coaching Factors

Coach	Team	Tournament Experience	Notable
Jon Scheyer	Duke	4th year; back-to-back Final Fours	Managing injuries; system not person-dependent
Tom Izzo	Michigan State	Legendary March coach; 8 Final Fours	3-seed in tough East; Izzo magic in play
Dan Hurley	UConn	Won 2024 and 2025 titles	Three-peat bid; stayed at UConn over Lakers
John Calipari	Arkansas	4 Final Fours (at Kentucky)	First SEC Tournament title at Arkansas
Rick Pitino	St. John's	2 national titles (different schools)	Back-to-back Big East titles; 5-seed value
Bill Self	Kansas	2 national titles	10-loss team but Peterson's talent is elite

Momentum Indicators

Team	Momentum Factor
Purdue	WON Big Ten Tournament (upset Michigan)
Arkansas	WON SEC Tournament as 3-seed
Arizona	WON Big 12 Tournament
Duke	WON ACC Tournament
St. John's	Regular season conference champion
Florida	11-game winning streak entering tourney
UConn	18-game win streak earlier in season
Miami (OH)	31-1 record but LOST MAC Tournament

10. Historical Upset Patterns & KenPom Trends

Historical Upset Rates by Seed Matchup (Since 1985)

Matchup	Higher Seed Win %	Upset Rate	Upsets per Year (avg)
1 vs. 16	99.3%	0.7%	~0.03 (only 2 ever: UMBC 2018, FDU 2023)
2 vs. 15	93.8%	6.2%	~0.25
3 vs. 14	85.2%	14.8%	~0.6
4 vs. 13	79.1%	20.9%	~0.8
5 vs. 12	64.4%	35.6%	~1.4 (most common upset)
6 vs. 11	62.5%	37.5%	~1.5
7 vs. 10	60.6%	39.4%	~1.6
8 vs. 9	51.5%	48.5%	~1.9 (near coin flip)

Key Observations

5 vs. 12 upsets happen in over 1/3 of matchups and are the classic "bracket buster"
8 vs. 9 games are essentially coin flips
2025 was historically chalk: Only 4 upsets by 5+ seed differential; all four 1-seeds made Final Four. This is the 2nd time in 40 years with fewer than 5 such upsets.
Regression to mean expected in 2026: The annual average is 8+ upsets by 5+ seed differential. After a chalk year, the following year typically sees more chaos.

KenPom Historical Benchmarks for National Champions (Since 2001)

Metric	Champion Average	Champion Range	Threshold
AdjEM Rank	5.17	Top 25 (24 of 24)	Must be top 25
AdjO Rank	8.25	Top 21 (23 of 24)	Should be top 21
AdjD Rank	16.33	Top 31 (22 of 24)	Should be top 31
AdjT Rank	133.79	Wide range (top 100 to 200+)	No clear threshold

2026 Teams Matching Historical Champion Profile

Nine teams rank in the top 21 of offensive efficiency AND top 31 of defensive efficiency:

Duke (AdjO #4, AdjD #2) — ELITE match
Arizona (AdjO #5, AdjD #3) — ELITE match
Michigan (AdjO #8, AdjD #1) — ELITE match
Florida (AdjO #9, AdjD #6) — ELITE match
Houston (AdjO #14, AdjD #5) — STRONG match
Iowa State (AdjO #21, AdjD #4) — Borderline AdjO
Illinois (AdjO #1, AdjD #28) — Borderline AdjD
Louisville (AdjO #20, AdjD #25) — Match
Vanderbilt (AdjO #7, AdjD #29) — Match

Final Four KenPom Benchmarks

Metric	Final Four Average
AdjEM Rank	11.24
AdjO Rank	18.47
AdjD Rank	22.96

Double-Digit Seed Sweet 16 Profile (Non-Major Conference)

Metric	Average Rank
AdjO	63.48
AdjD	79.76
AdjEM	55.08

ESPN BPI Most Likely First-Round Upsets

ESPN's Basketball Power Index computer model identified these as the three most likely upsets:

(10) Texas A&M over (7) Saint Mary's
(10) Missouri over (7) Miami (FL)
(11) VCU over (6) North Carolina

11. Cinderella & Sleeper Candidates

Top Cinderella Picks

Tier 1: Most Likely Upsets (8-11 Seeds)

Team	Seed	Opponent	Spread	Why They're Dangerous
VCU	11 (South)	(6) UNC	UNC -2.5	KenPom #47; UNC missing Caleb Wilson (0-2 without him); VCU's defense travels
UCF	10 (East)	(7) UCLA	UCLA -5.5	Big 12 team with tournament experience
Utah State	9 (West)	(8) Villanova	USU -2.5	Utah State actually FAVORED; 28-6 record; MWC champion
Santa Clara	10 (Midwest)	(7) Kentucky	UK -3.5	WCC team with 26-8 record; Kentucky inconsistent at 21-13
Iowa	9 (South)	(8) Clemson	Iowa -2.5	Iowa favored; Big Ten quality
Texas A&M	10 (South)	(7) Saint Mary's	SM -3.5	SEC team; BPI identifies as most likely upset
Missouri	10 (West)	(7) Miami	MIA -1.5	Near pick'em; SEC depth
South Florida	11 (East)	(6) Louisville	LOU -5.5	Manageable spread

Tier 2: Classic 12-over-5 Candidates

Team	Seed	Opponent	Spread	Why They're Dangerous
Akron	12 (Midwest)	(5) Texas Tech	TTU -7.5	Texas Tech missing star JT Toppin (ACL); Akron on hot streak; Tavari Johnson 20 PPG; top-15 nationally from 3
McNeese	12 (South)	(5) Vanderbilt	VANDY -11.5	Southland champion; big spread but Vanderbilt's defense (#29) is exploitable
Northern Iowa	12 (East)	(5) St. John's	STJ -10.5	MVC champion; 5 straight wins; KenPom 25th-best defense; allow only 61.3 PPG
High Point	12 (West)	(5) Wisconsin	WIS -9.5	Big South champion; Wisconsin has 10 losses

Tier 3: Deep Run Dark Horses

Team	Seed	KenPom	Why They Could Go Deep
Vanderbilt	5 (South)	#11	KenPom #11 but seeded as 5; AdjO #7; called "best dark horse bet" by analysts
Louisville	6 (East)	#19	AdjO #20, AdjD #25; balanced; meets KenPom champion profile
Saint Louis	9 (Midwest)	~#35	28-5 record; A-10 champion; could beat Georgia
Utah State	9 (West)	~#32	28-6; favored over Villanova; tough MWC team

Tier 4: True Cinderellas (13+ Seeds)

Team	Seed	Opponent	Key Factor
Hofstra	13 (Midwest)	(4) Alabama	Guard duo Cruz Davis + Preston Edmead combine for 36.1 PPG; Alabama's defense (#67) is worst of any 4-seed; went 14-8 in road/neutral games
Cal Baptist	13 (East)	(4) Kansas	Dominique Daniels 23.2 PPG; dominant rebounding; Kansas has 10 losses
Penn	14 (South)	(3) Illinois	Ivy League champion; Illinois defense (#28) beatable, but -24.5 spread is massive

12. Data Sources

Primary Sources

Analytics Sources

Betting & Odds Sources

Injury & Analysis Sources

Upset & Prediction Sources

Appendix A: Quick Reference — Region Difficulty Rankings

East Region (Hardest)

The East Region is widely considered the toughest bracket, featuring Duke (1), UConn (2), Michigan State (3), Kansas (4), and St. John's (5). Three coaches with national championships (Scheyer, Hurley, Self) are in this region.

South Region

Florida (1), Houston (2), Illinois (3), Nebraska (4), and Vanderbilt (5). Contains three of the nine teams matching the KenPom champion profile.

Midwest Region

Michigan (1), Iowa State (2), Virginia (3), Alabama (4), and Texas Tech (5). Alabama's explosive offense (91.7 PPG) vs. Iowa State's elite defense (#4) is a potential Elite Eight clash.

West Region (Softest Lower Seeds)

Arizona (1), Purdue (2), Gonzaga (3), Arkansas (4), and Wisconsin (5). Top-heavy but lower seeds are weaker than other regions.

Appendix B: Key Prediction Variables for AI Agents

Variables to Weight Heavily

KenPom AdjEM — Primary power ranking metric
Injury status — Duke's PG/C situation, Texas Tech's Toppin, UNC's Wilson
Two-way balance (AdjO + AdjD) — 23 of 24 champions were top-21 AdjO AND top-31 AdjD
Conference tournament results — Momentum and fatigue indicators
Point spread — Market-implied probability is highly efficient

Variables to Consider as Secondary

3-point shooting % — Virginia's 46.8% is elite but volatile in single-elimination
Free throw % — Crucial in close games
Turnover rate — Nebraska's elite turnover forcing; Alabama's high-risk style
Experience/tournament DNA — UConn, Michigan State, Kansas have institutional knowledge
Coaching pedigree in March — Izzo, Hurley, Self, Calipari, Pitino track records

Red Flags for Upsets

High-seed team with AdjD outside top 50 (Alabama at #67, Arkansas at #52)
Spread under 5 points in a 5v12 or 6v11 matchup
Key player injured or limited (Duke, Texas Tech, UNC, Gonzaga)
Low-seed team from strong conference (Missouri SEC 10-seed, UCF Big 12 10-seed)
Previous year was historically chalk (2025) — regression to upset mean expected

Historical Champion Checklist

Top 25 KenPom AdjEM
Top 21 AdjO
Top 31 AdjD
Tournament path does not include multiple KenPom top-10 opponents in same region
Healthy roster entering tournament
Coach with tournament success track record

2026 Teams Passing All Champion Checklist Items

Arizona — KenPom #3, AdjO #5, AdjD #3, healthy, Tommy Lloyd experienced, favorable West region
Michigan — KenPom #2, AdjO #8, AdjD #1, mostly healthy, favorable Midwest region
Florida — KenPom #4, AdjO #9, AdjD #6, healthy, defending champion, South region
Houston — KenPom #5, AdjO #14, AdjD #5, healthy, elite freshman PG, South region (faces Florida)
Duke — KenPom #1, AdjO #4, AdjD #2, BUT injury concerns, toughest East region
Iowa State — KenPom #6, AdjO #21 (borderline), AdjD #4, healthy, Midwest region

Document compiled: March 16, 2026 • Purpose: Seed data for multi-agent March Madness prediction simulation engine • Total teams catalogued: 68 • Data freshness: Current as of Selection Sunday (March 15, 2026)